{
 "revisions": [
  {
   "date": "2026-08-07",
   "label": "August 2026 comprehensive refresh",
   "summary": "First full-dataset refresh since launch: all 62 markets re-verified against FY2025 filings and 2026 trackers (42 updated, 20 confirmed unchanged), productivity series rebuilt from FRED's current vintage (which incorporates the Feb 2026 CES benchmark revision), and sector/TFP productivity series added. Corrections restate figures that were wrong or outdated at the prior vintage; new observations are genuinely newer readings of the same metric.",
   "entries": [
    {
     "id": "mfg-aero",
     "mkt": "Aerospace & Defense",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 450,
       "new": 679
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "RTX",
       "new": "Lockheed Martin"
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Lockheed Martin",
       "new": "RTX"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Boeing",
       "new": "Northrop Grumman"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 9.5,
       "new": 9
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 8.4,
       "new": 6
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 7.8,
       "new": 5.2
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 25.7,
       "new": 20.2
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 230,
       "new": 144
      }
     ],
     "source": "SIPRI Top 100 Arms-Producing Companies (Dec 2025 release, 2024 revenues: total $679B; Lockheed $60.8B, RTX $40.7B, Northrop $35.6B)",
     "source_url": "https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/sipri-top-100-arms-producing-and-military-services-companies-2024",
     "note": "LEADER CHANGE: baseline mis-transcribed SIPRI ordering \u2014 SIPRI ranks Lockheed Martin #1 in arms revenue, not RTX. Boeing drops out of top 3, replaced by Northrop; denominator restated to SIPRI Top 100 total arms revenue."
    },
    {
     "id": "sw-cad",
     "mkt": "CAD / PLM / Simulation",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 18,
       "new": 80.3
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "Autodesk",
       "new": "Siemens"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Siemens",
       "new": "Autodesk"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 22,
       "new": 8.7
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 20,
       "new": 8.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 14,
       "new": 6.8
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 56,
       "new": 23.8
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 1150,
       "new": 190
      }
     ],
     "source": "CIMdata 2025 PLM Market & Solution Provider Analysis (2024 data, June 2025)",
     "source_url": "https://plm-erpnews.se/surprisingly-strong-growth-for-plm-investments-according-to-new-cimdata-2025-report/",
     "note": "LEADER CHANGE (correction): CIMdata full PLM market $80.3B with Siemens ~$7.0B > Dassault ~$6.7B > Autodesk ~$5.5B \u2014 baseline didn't match its cited source's denominator."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-cleaning",
     "mkt": "Commercial Cleaning",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 90,
       "new": 112.4
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 5,
       "new": 4.2
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 1.1,
       "new": 0.9
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 6.1,
       "new": 5.1
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 27,
       "new": 18
      }
     ],
     "source": "IBISWorld Janitorial Services 2026 ($112.4B); ABM FY2025 10-K ($8.7B)",
     "source_url": "https://investor.abm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/abm-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-fiscal-2025-results-and",
     "note": "Denominator restated to $112.4B; ABM janitorial-only ~4.2%."
    },
    {
     "id": "sw-erp",
     "mkt": "ERP / Finance",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 55,
       "new": 66
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "SAP",
       "new": "Oracle"
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Oracle",
       "new": "SAP"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 22,
       "new": 13.2
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 11,
       "new": 13
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 42,
       "new": 34.2
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 800,
       "new": 410
      }
     ],
     "source": "Gartner Market Share: ERP Worldwide 2024 (doc 6524002)",
     "source_url": "https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/6524002",
     "note": "LEADER CHANGE (correction): Gartner 2024 shows $66B market, Oracle $8.7B/13.2% edging SAP $8.6B/13.0% \u2014 baseline SAP-22/Oracle-11 doesn't match the cited source. Microsoft ~8% #3 approx."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-electrical",
     "mkt": "Electrical",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 230,
       "new": 347.5
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 4.9,
       "new": 3.9
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 2,
       "new": 1.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 1.5,
       "new": 1
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 8.4,
       "new": 6.2
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 31,
       "new": 18
      }
     ],
     "source": "IBISWorld Electricians 2026 ($347.5B); Quanta FY2025 ($28.5B, +20%)",
     "source_url": "https://investors.quantaservices.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/390/quanta-services-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results",
     "note": "Denominator restated to $347.5B; numerators grew but CR3 decline is denominator restatement, not deconsolidation."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-fire",
     "mkt": "Fire & Life Safety",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "JCI / Tyco Fire",
       "new": "APi Group"
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Cintas",
       "new": "JCI / Tyco Fire"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Honeywell",
       "new": "Cintas"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 8,
       "new": 16
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 2.5,
       "new": 8
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 1.6,
       "new": 2.5
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 12.1,
       "new": 26.5
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 73,
       "new": 326
      }
     ],
     "source": "APi Group FY2025 results ($7.9B; US safety services est. ~$4.0B = ~16% of $25B US services denominator); CertaSite + Onyx-Fire acquisitions",
     "source_url": "https://ir.apigroupcorp.com/News/press-releases/news-details/2026/APi-Group-Reports-Record-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx",
     "note": "CORRECTION: baseline omitted APi Group, the largest fire & life safety services provider. Top-3 restated to APi/JCI/Cintas; CR3 12.1\u219226.5."
    },
    {
     "id": "sw-hr",
     "mkt": "HR & Payroll (HCM)",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 35,
       "new": 41
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "UKG",
       "new": "SAP"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 15,
       "new": 12.6
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 13,
       "new": 8
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 8,
       "new": 7.5
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 36,
       "new": 28.1
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 560,
       "new": 280
      }
     ],
     "source": "IDC Worldwide HCM and Payroll Applications Market Shares 2024 (US53468226)",
     "source_url": "https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US53468226",
     "note": "IDC restates market at $41B, Workday #1 at 12.6% \u2014 baseline shares overstated. Rank: Workday, ADP, SAP (UKG out of top 3). ADP/SAP shares estimated from IDC top-4 statement."
    },
    {
     "id": "sw-itsm",
     "mkt": "ITSM / Endpoint Mgmt",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 12,
       "new": 11.4
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "BMC",
       "new": "Atlassian"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Ivanti",
       "new": "BMC"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 35,
       "new": 44.4
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 8,
       "new": 18.5
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 5,
       "new": 8
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 48,
       "new": 70.9
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 1350,
       "new": 2380
      }
     ],
     "source": "Apps Run The World, Top 10 ITSM Software Vendors 2024 (July 2025)",
     "source_url": "https://www.appsruntheworld.com/top-10-it-service-management-software-vendors-and-market-forecast/",
     "note": "ServiceNow restated to 44.4% of $11.4B ITSM (baseline 35% understated); Atlassian #2 at 18.5%; Ivanti out of top 3. Much more concentrated than baseline recorded."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-landscape",
     "mkt": "Landscaping",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 130,
       "new": 176.7
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 1.8,
       "new": 1.6
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 1.2,
       "new": 0.9
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 3,
       "new": 2.5
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 5,
       "new": 3
      }
     ],
     "source": "IBISWorld Landscaping Services 2026 ($176.7B); BrightView FY2025 (~$2.8B)",
     "source_url": "https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-size/landscaping-services/1497/",
     "note": "Denominator restated; still the least concentrated market in the category."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-pest",
     "mkt": "Pest Control",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 25,
       "new": 29.7
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 20,
       "new": 13.5
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 6,
       "new": 2
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 38,
       "new": 27.5
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 580,
       "new": 330
      }
     ],
     "source": "IBISWorld Pest Control 2026 ($29.7B); Rentokil FY2025 (NA pest ~$4.0B); Rollins FY2025 10-K; Anticimex FY2025",
     "source_url": "https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/industry/pest-control/1495/",
     "note": "Correction: Rentokil NA ~13.5% (not 20%); Anticimex can't support 6% US (restated ~2%). Rollins ~12% unchanged."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-pharma",
     "mkt": "Pharma / Biopharma",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine",
       "new": "Merck & Co"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Merck & Co",
       "new": "Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 8.5,
       "new": 10.9
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 7.5,
       "new": 10.8
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 7,
       "new": 10.1
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 23,
       "new": 31.8
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 195,
       "new": 337
      }
     ],
     "source": "Eli Lilly ($65.2B, +45% on Mounjaro/Zepbound), Merck ($65.0B), J&J IM (~$60B) FY2025 results/10-Ks (Feb 2026)",
     "source_url": "https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-fourth-quarter-2025-financial-results-and-provides",
     "note": "FY2025 actuals restate baseline estimates: Merck overtakes J&J IM at #2; Lilly's GLP-1 surge lifts CR3 23\u219231.8 against the unchanged $600B denominator."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-plumbing",
     "mkt": "Plumbing",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 140,
       "new": 191.4
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 1.5,
       "new": 1
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 2.8,
       "new": 2
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 20,
       "new": 2
      }
     ],
     "source": "IBISWorld Plumbers in the US 2026 ($191.4B); Chemed Q4 2025 (Roto-Rooter ~$2B systemwide)",
     "source_url": "https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-size/plumbers/1946",
     "note": "IBISWorld restates denominator to $191.4B, deflating shares; Roto-Rooter still leads. PE platforms consolidating but none displaces it within plumbing."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-ridehail",
     "mkt": "Ride-hailing",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 74,
       "new": 76
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 26,
       "new": 24
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 6152,
       "new": 6352
      }
     ],
     "source": "Gridwise trip-level data (Uber 76/Lyft 24, Dec 2024); corroborated by Bloomberg Second Measure",
     "source_url": "https://gridwise.io/blog/analytics/lyfts-shift-a-look-at-recent-rideshare-performance",
     "note": "Correction: the baseline's own cited tracker publishes 76/24, not 74/26."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-textiles",
     "mkt": "Textiles & Apparel (US)",
     "kind": "correction",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 30,
       "new": 58.4
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 3,
       "new": 1.5
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 2.5,
       "new": 1.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 1.9,
       "new": 1
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 7.4,
       "new": 3.8
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 25,
       "new": 5
      }
     ],
     "source": "NCTO State of the US Textile Industry (2024 shipments NAICS 313+314+315 = $58.4B)",
     "source_url": "https://ncto.org/facts-figures/us-textile-industry/",
     "note": "Correction: baseline $30B materially understates the NAICS 313-315 denominator (~$58.4B per NCTO/Census); shares roughly halve. Market even more fragmented than recorded."
    },
    {
     "id": "cog-accounting",
     "mkt": "Accounting / Audit",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 7.9,
       "new": 8.5
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 18.7,
       "new": 19.3
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 130,
       "new": 131
      }
     ],
     "source": "Deloitte US $35.7B FY2025 (FYE May 2025); PwC FY2025 Global Annual Review",
     "source_url": "https://www.deloitte.com/global/en/about/press-room/global-revenue-announcement.html",
     "note": "Deloitte US lifts s1 to 8.5%; PwC/EY US-only FY2025 not published, s2/s3 held."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-bldg",
     "mkt": "Building Products",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2022,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 4.8,
       "new": 4.4
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 3.5,
       "new": 3
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 2,
       "new": 1.9
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 10.3,
       "new": 9.3
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 40,
       "new": 32
      }
     ],
     "source": "FY2025 filings: Mohawk 10-K ($10.79B), Masco FY2025 ($7.56B), Fortune Brands FY2025 ($4.46B)",
     "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/851968/000085196826000011/mhk-20251231.htm",
     "note": "All three incumbents below 2022 peaks while denominator held flat \u2014 CR3 down ~1pp, a move AGAINST the concentration thesis here."
    },
    {
     "id": "sw-crm",
     "mkt": "CRM",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Microsoft",
       "new": "Oracle"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Oracle",
       "new": "Microsoft"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 21.7,
       "new": 20
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 5.5,
       "new": 4.1
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 4.5,
       "new": 4
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 32.3,
       "new": 28.1
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 540,
       "new": 430
      }
     ],
     "source": "IDC Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker 2025 shares, cited in Salesforce #1 CRM announcement, June 2026",
     "source_url": "https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/idc-crm-market-share-ranking-2026/",
     "note": "Salesforce 20.0% (leader share -1.7pp); Oracle 4.1% displaces Microsoft 4.0% at #2."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-cement",
     "mkt": "Cement",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "Holcim",
       "new": "Amrize"
      }
     ],
     "source": "Holcim completion of Amrize spin-off (NYSE: AMRZ), June 23, 2025",
     "source_url": "https://www.constructiondive.com/news/swiss-cement-giant-holcim-north-american-spinoff-Amrize/751452/",
     "note": "LEADER NAME CHANGE: Holcim spun off its North American business as Amrize (June 2025); same assets remain #1 in US cement, shares unchanged."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-cloud",
     "mkt": "Cloud Infrastructure",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 330,
       "new": 419
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 30,
       "new": 28
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 12,
       "new": 14
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 1700,
       "new": 1421
      }
     ],
     "source": "Synergy Research Q1 2026 ($129B quarter, +35% YoY; AWS 28, Azure 21, GCP 14); FY2025 total $419B",
     "source_url": "https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/cloud-market-annual-revenue-run-rate-topped-half-a-trillion-dollars-in-q1-as-growth-surge-continues",
     "note": "AWS slips 30\u219228% (grew 19% in a 35% market); GCP jumps to 14% on 63% growth. CR3 holds 63."
    },
    {
     "id": "sw-data",
     "mkt": "Data & Analytics / BI",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 40,
       "new": 45
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 9,
       "new": 10
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 6,
       "new": 8.5
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 29,
       "new": 32.5
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 400,
       "new": 370
      }
     ],
     "source": "Snowflake FY2026 results (product revenue $4.47B, +29%); Databricks $4.8B run-rate (Dec 2025)",
     "source_url": "https://www.snowflake.com/en/news/press-releases/snowflake-reports-financial-results-for-the-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-of-fiscal-2026/",
     "note": "Snowflake and Databricks (+55%) outgrew the ~$45B market, lifting s2/s3; Microsoft s1 held at 14."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-digad",
     "mkt": "Digital Advertising",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "Google",
       "new": "Meta"
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Meta",
       "new": "Google"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 23.9,
       "new": 21.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 20.9,
       "new": 21
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 62.1,
       "new": 59.6
      }
     ],
     "source": "eMarketer press release 'Meta to Surpass Google in Digital Ad Revenues for First Time Ever', April 2026 (Meta $100.86B US)",
     "source_url": "https://www.emarketer.com/press-releases/meta-to-surpass-google-in-digital-ad-revenues-for-first-time-ever/",
     "note": "LEADER CHANGE: Meta edges past Google in US digital ad revenue for the first time; Amazon #3 fastest-growing. Near-parity shares approximate (~21.3 vs ~21.0); exact 2026 table not retrievable."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-ecomm",
     "mkt": "E-commerce",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 6.4,
       "new": 9.2
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 50.5,
       "new": 53.3
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 1694,
       "new": 1738
      }
     ],
     "source": "eMarketer May 2026: Amazon+Walmart 51.0% of US retail ecommerce in 2026, first time above 50%",
     "source_url": "https://www.emarketer.com/content/retail-market-share-concentration-amazon-walmart-growth",
     "note": "Walmart jumps to ~9.2% (US online ~$150B FY2026, +20%); Amazon ~40.5% steady; Apple ~3.6% #3."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-facilities",
     "mkt": "Facilities Maintenance",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "CBRE (GWS)",
       "new": "CBRE (BOE)"
      }
     ],
     "source": "CBRE FY2025 10-K \u2014 GWS reorganized into Building Operations & Experience (BOE); group revenue $40.6B (+13%)",
     "source_url": "https://ir.cbre.com/press-releases/detail/261/cbre-group-inc-reports-financial-results-for-q4-and-full",
     "note": "Segment renamed; no US-only FM split published, shares held."
    },
    {
     "id": "cog-wealth",
     "mkt": "Financial Advisory / Wealth",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 9.5,
       "new": 10.6
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 7.6,
       "new": 8.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 5.4,
       "new": 6
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 22.5,
       "new": 24.9
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 178,
       "new": 217
      }
     ],
     "source": "Morgan Stanley 4Q25 (WM record $31.8B); BAC GWIM $24.9B; Edward Jones $18.0B FY2025",
     "source_url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us-ir/shareholder/4q2025.pdf",
     "note": "$300B denominator held constant \u2014 part of gains reflects market growth not yet restated."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-furniture",
     "mkt": "Furniture Manufacturing",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2022,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "MillerKnoll",
       "new": "HNI (incl. Steelcase)"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Steelcase",
       "new": "MillerKnoll"
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 4.8,
       "new": 7.7
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 4.3,
       "new": 4.9
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 19.8,
       "new": 23.3
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 156,
       "new": 198
      }
     ],
     "source": "HNI completes $2.2B Steelcase acquisition (Dec 10, 2025; pro forma $5.8B); MillerKnoll FY2025 (~$3.67B)",
     "source_url": "https://www.steelcase.com/press-releases/hni-corporation-completes-acquisition-of-steelcase-inc/",
     "note": "Broad NAICS 337 retained, Ashley still #1. HNI+Steelcase creates a $5.8B #2 (~7.7%), lifting CR3 ~3.5pp \u2014 clearest consolidation event in this cohort."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-hvac",
     "mkt": "HVAC Contractors",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 156,
       "new": 159.4
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "EMCOR Group",
       "new": "Comfort Systems USA"
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Comfort Systems USA",
       "new": "EMCOR Group"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 3.5,
       "new": 4.2
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 2,
       "new": 4
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 6.3,
       "new": 9
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 21,
       "new": 34
      }
     ],
     "source": "Comfort Systems USA FY2025 results ($9.10B, +29%); EMCOR FY2025 ($16.99B); IBISWorld HVAC Contractors 2026 ($159.4B)",
     "source_url": "https://investors.comfortsystemsusa.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comfort-systems-usa-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025",
     "note": "LEADER CHANGE: Comfort Systems mechanical (~$6.67B = 4.2%) overtakes EMCOR HVAC-allocated (~$6.4B est). Apex Service Partners ($1.3B, Apollo ~$10B valuation May 2026) signals accelerating PE consolidation."
    },
    {
     "id": "cog-insurance",
     "mkt": "Insurance Brokerage",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 22,
       "new": 22.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 13,
       "new": 14.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 13,
       "new": 10.3
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 48,
       "new": 46.9
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 822,
       "new": 808
      }
     ],
     "source": "Business Insurance 2026 largest brokers (2025 revenue): MMC $24.46B, Aon $15.70B, Gallagher $11.30B of top-20 $109.6B",
     "source_url": "https://beinsure.com/ranking/top-global-re-insurance-brokers/",
     "note": "Gallagher's figure includes only ~5 months of AssuredPartners, so s3 below baseline pro-forma."
    },
    {
     "id": "cog-legal",
     "mkt": "Legal Services",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 400,
       "new": 427
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 2.2,
       "new": 2.5
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 1.8,
       "new": 1.9
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 5.1,
       "new": 5.5
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 9,
       "new": 11
      }
     ],
     "source": "Am Law 100 2026 (April 2026): Kirkland $10.556B (first firm over $10B), Latham $8.3B, DLA $4.58B; IBISWorld US law-firm revenue $426.7B",
     "source_url": "https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/am-law-100s-gross-revenue-rankings-show-minor-shifts",
     "note": "Kirkland first firm over $10B (+~20%). Top-3 order unchanged."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-mobileos",
     "mkt": "Mobile OS",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 72.8,
       "new": 69.1
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 27.2,
       "new": 30.8
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 100,
       "new": 99.9
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 6042,
       "new": 5723
      }
     ],
     "source": "StatCounter worldwide mobile OS share, June 2026 (Android 69.14, iOS 30.79)",
     "source_url": "https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/mobile",
     "note": "iOS +3.6pp globally; duopoly intact."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-auto",
     "mkt": "Motor Vehicles",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2022,
       "new": 2025
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Ford",
       "new": "Toyota"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Stellantis",
       "new": "Ford"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 18,
       "new": 17.5
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 16,
       "new": 15.4
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 10,
       "new": 13.5
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 44,
       "new": 46.4
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 750,
       "new": 726
      }
     ],
     "source": "WardsAuto / automaker FY2025 US sales reports (GM 2.85M, Toyota 2.52M, Ford 2.2M of 16.3M total)",
     "source_url": "https://www.wardsauto.com/news/automaker-us-sales-roundup-for-2025/809790/",
     "note": "GM remains US leader at 17.5%; Toyota displaces Ford at #2 and Stellantis (down 3% in 2025) falls out of the top 3. Basis is CY2025 unit sales share rather than Economic Census shipment value."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-paper",
     "mkt": "Paper & Packaging",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2024,
       "new": 2025
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 7,
       "new": 9.1
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 22.5,
       "new": 24.6
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 220,
       "new": 239
      }
     ],
     "source": "Smurfit Westrock ($31.8B), International Paper ($23.6B first full DS Smith year), PKG ($9.0B incl. Greif containerboard) FY2025",
     "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/international-paper-to-create-two-independent-public-companies-and-reports-full-year-and-fourth-quarter-2025-results-302673451.html",
     "note": "IP+DS Smith lifts s2 to 9.1%. M&A flag: IP announced Feb 2026 split into two public companies."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-refine",
     "mkt": "Petroleum Refining",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Phillips 66",
       "new": "ExxonMobil"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 17,
       "new": 16.4
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 14,
       "new": 12.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 11,
       "new": 10.8
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 42,
       "new": 39.5
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 606,
       "new": 537
      }
     ],
     "source": "EIA Refinery Capacity Report 2026 (18.2 mmb/cd; Marathon 2.99, Valero 2.23, XOM ~1.97)",
     "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67807",
     "note": "LYB Houston + P66 LA closures shrink capacity; ExxonMobil displaces Phillips 66 at #3. Valero Benicia ceased spring 2026 \u2014 will shift 2027 shares."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-printing",
     "mkt": "Printing & Related",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2022,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 80,
       "new": 86.6
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "LSC Communications",
       "new": "Taylor Corporation"
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 4,
       "new": 3.1
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 8,
       "new": 7.1
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 40,
       "new": 26
      }
     ],
     "source": "IBISWorld Printing in the US (2026, $86.6B); Quad/Graphics 10-K; Printing Impressions 300 (2025)",
     "source_url": "https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/industry/printing/433/",
     "note": "LSC no longer independent #3 (Atlas Holdings); Taylor Corp #3 per PI300 but private revenue unverified. Quad decline cuts s2 to ~3.1%."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-concrete",
     "mkt": "Ready-Mix Concrete",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2022,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 32,
       "new": 46.6
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "Martin Marietta",
       "new": "Cemex"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Vulcan Materials",
       "new": "Quikrete (incl. Summit Materials)"
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 5,
       "new": 4.5
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 15,
       "new": 14.5
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 120,
       "new": 72
      }
     ],
     "source": "IBISWorld Ready-Mixed Concrete in the US (2026); Summit Materials 8-K (Quikrete acquisition closed Feb 10, 2025)",
     "source_url": "https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/industry/ready-mixed-concrete-manufacturing/552/",
     "note": "IBISWorld 2026: $46.6B revenue, CRH still #1; Quikrete's $11.5B Summit acquisition reshuffles top 3 to CRH/Cemex/Quikrete. Concentration roughly flat on larger base."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-roofing",
     "mkt": "Roofing",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 57,
       "new": 92.5
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "Tecta America",
       "new": "Leaf Home"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Baker Roofing",
       "new": "Tecta America"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 2.6,
       "new": 2.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 1.7,
       "new": 1.8
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 0.6,
       "new": 1.7
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 4.9,
       "new": 5.8
      }
     ],
     "source": "Roofing Contractor Top 100 (2026): Leaf Home $2.09B #1; IBISWorld Roofing Contractors 2026 ($92.5B)",
     "source_url": "https://www.roofingcontractor.com/articles/102506-rcs-top-100-the-top-10-roofing-contractors-of-2026",
     "note": "LEADER CHANGE: Leaf Home (residential, Gridiron-backed) tops 2026 RC Top 100 \u2014 first residential #1 in a decade; CentiMark ~$1.7B, Tecta $1.6B. Denominator moved to IBISWorld $92.5B."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-search",
     "mkt": "Search Engines",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 84.1,
       "new": 86.6
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 10.5,
       "new": 8.6
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 2.9,
       "new": 2.7
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 97.5,
       "new": 97.9
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 7191,
       "new": 7581
      }
     ],
     "source": "StatCounter US search engine market share, July 2026",
     "source_url": "https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/all/united-states-of-america",
     "note": "Same tracker, newer month: Google 86.6%, Bing slips to 8.6%, Yahoo 2.7%. HHI 7191\u21927581."
    },
    {
     "id": "mfg-semi",
     "mkt": "Semiconductor Fab",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 620,
       "new": 169.5
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Intel",
       "new": "SMIC"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 62,
       "new": 69.9
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 13,
       "new": 7.2
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 10,
       "new": 5.3
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 85,
       "new": 82.4
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 4112,
       "new": 4966
      }
     ],
     "source": "TrendForce full-year 2025 foundry ranking (via Taipei Times, Mar 2026): TSMC $122.5B/69.9%, Samsung $12.6B/7.2%, SMIC $9.3B/5.3%; top-10 foundry revenue $169.5B",
     "source_url": "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/03/14/2003853777",
     "note": "TSMC extends dominance to 69.9% on AI demand; Samsung slides to 7.2% and SMIC replaces Intel at #3. size_b restated to the foundry-revenue denominator ($169.5B)."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-social",
     "mkt": "Social Media",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 80,
       "new": 121
      }
     ],
     "source": "eMarketer US Social Network Ad Spending Forecast H2 2025/2026 ($121B in 2026)",
     "source_url": "https://www.emarketer.com/content/us-social-network-ad-spending-forecast-report-h2-2025",
     "note": "Size updated to $121B 2026 US social ad spend. Meta ~41% per trade coverage (within noise of 42) \u2014 shares held."
    },
    {
     "id": "cog-staffing",
     "mkt": "Staffing / Recruiting",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "size_b",
       "old": 220,
       "new": 175
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Randstad",
       "new": "Insight Global"
      }
     ],
     "source": "SIA Largest Staffing Firms in the US: 2026 Update \u2014 podium Allegis, Aya, Insight Global; listed firms $122.4B \u2248 70% of ~$175B market",
     "source_url": "https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/allegis-aya-and-insight-global-top-sia-list-of-largest-staffing-firms",
     "note": "Insight Global displaces Randstad at #3; size_b realigned to SIA's own denominator."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-streaming",
     "mkt": "Streaming Video",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "leader",
       "old": "Netflix",
       "new": "YouTube"
      },
      {
       "field": "p2",
       "old": "YouTube",
       "new": "Netflix"
      },
      {
       "field": "p3",
       "old": "Disney+",
       "new": "Prime Video"
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 23,
       "new": 28.4
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 17,
       "new": 16.5
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 10,
       "new": 9.3
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 50,
       "new": 54.2
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 1100,
       "new": 1165
      }
     ],
     "source": "Nielsen The Gauge / Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026 (YouTube 13.8% of total TV, Netflix 8.0%, Prime 4.5%; streaming 48.6% of TV)",
     "source_url": "https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2026/streaming-embarks-on-annual-summer-ascent-in-nielsens-may-2026-gauge-reports/",
     "note": "LEADER CHANGE: YouTube overtakes Netflix in US streaming viewing share (share-of-streaming basis). Prime displaces Disney+ at #3 (inferred)."
    },
    {
     "id": "phys-waste",
     "mkt": "Waste Management",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 22,
       "new": 25.2
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 16,
       "new": 16.6
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 44,
       "new": 47.8
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 900,
       "new": 947
      }
     ],
     "source": "WM FY2025 10-K ($25.20B incl. Stericycle); Republic FY2025 ($16.6B); GFL FY2025",
     "source_url": "https://investors.wm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/wm-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-earnings",
     "note": "Genuine continued consolidation \u2014 CR3 up ~4pp on fixed ~$100B denominator (shares slightly flattered by constant denominator)."
    },
    {
     "id": "internet-browser",
     "mkt": "Web Browser",
     "kind": "new_observation",
     "confidence": "high",
     "fields": [
      {
       "field": "year",
       "old": 2025,
       "new": 2026
      },
      {
       "field": "s1",
       "old": 65.1,
       "new": 69.5
      },
      {
       "field": "s2",
       "old": 18.4,
       "new": 15.3
      },
      {
       "field": "s3",
       "old": 5,
       "new": 5.2
      },
      {
       "field": "cr3",
       "old": 88.5,
       "new": 90
      },
      {
       "field": "hhi",
       "old": 4602,
       "new": 5091
      }
     ],
     "source": "StatCounter worldwide browser share, June 2026 (Chrome 69.54, Safari 15.33, Edge 5.23)",
     "source_url": "https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share",
     "note": "Chrome +4.4pp to 69.5%; Safari -3pp. HHI ~5091."
    }
   ],
   "productivity_revisions": [
    {
     "quarter": "2019-Q1",
     "old": 1.4,
     "new": 1
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2019-Q2",
     "old": 2,
     "new": 1.6
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2019-Q3",
     "old": 1.6,
     "new": 2.4
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2019-Q4",
     "old": 1.3,
     "new": 3.6
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2020-Q1",
     "old": 1,
     "new": 2.3
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2020-Q2",
     "old": 7.7,
     "new": 6.6
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2020-Q3",
     "old": 4.6,
     "new": 7.1
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2021-Q1",
     "old": 4,
     "new": 6.4
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2021-Q2",
     "old": 0.6,
     "new": 1.7
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2021-Q3",
     "old": -0.8,
     "new": -0.5
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2021-Q4",
     "old": 0.7,
     "new": 0.9
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2022-Q2",
     "old": -2.5,
     "new": -2
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2022-Q4",
     "old": -1,
     "new": -1.4
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2023-Q1",
     "old": 0.5,
     "new": 0.1
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2023-Q2",
     "old": 2.4,
     "new": 1.9
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2023-Q3",
     "old": 3.2,
     "new": 3.1
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2023-Q4",
     "old": 3,
     "new": 3.5
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2024-Q1",
     "old": 2.8,
     "new": 3.3
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2024-Q2",
     "old": 2.5,
     "new": 3.2
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2024-Q3",
     "old": 2,
     "new": 2.9
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2024-Q4",
     "old": 1.8,
     "new": 2.3
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2025-Q2",
     "old": 1.9,
     "new": 2.1
    },
    {
     "quarter": "2025-Q3",
     "old": 2.2,
     "new": 2.5
    }
   ],
   "productivity_new": [
    {
     "quarter": "2026-Q2",
     "old": null,
     "new": 2.2
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}