Category concentration · avg top-1 share, 2025tap any → deep dive
The tracker
↓ every market we could findAverage S1 & CR3 by Category (Mfg Expanded)
Click any category bar to drill into that category →
Avg S1 — leader's share (left bar, lighter)
Avg CR3 — top 3 combined share (right bar, fuller)
S1= the #1 player's market share. CR3= cumulative share of the top 3 players combined (a standard concentration measure used by economists and the DOJ). Higher values = more concentrated industry. Each category bar uses the category's pencil color (Internet = denim, Software = terracotta, etc.); within a category, the lighter shade is S1 and the fuller shade is CR3.
How Concentrated Is Each Industry?
Solid lines = CR3 (top 3 combined share). Dotted lines = S1 (leader share). Toggle metrics and categories below.
Metrics:
Projection methodology:2030–2035 estimates are derived from the Aggregation Theory thesis. AI collapses white-collar and distribution constraints, driving concentration in cognitive services (+6pp by 2030, +14pp by 2035) and physical services (+6pp, +14pp). Discrete manufacturing sees moderate AI-driven consolidation. Internet/software are near ceiling. Capital-intensive mfg is stable (capex moats). Historical analog: IT-era concentration velocity (1995–2005). Sources: Logos Fund analysis, Goldman Sachs AI adoption curves, McKinsey "Generative AI and the future of work" (2023).
What this chart shows: Solid lines = CR3 (average combined market share of the top 3 companies). Dotted lines = S1 (average leader share of the #1 company). Toggle CR3/S1 above. Categories shown: Internet (10 markets incl. search, e-commerce, cloud, social media, streaming) · Software (10 markets incl. CRM, ERP, cybersecurity, payments) · Cognitive Services (9 markets incl. legal, accounting, consulting, IT services) · Physical Services (10 markets incl. HVAC, waste, pest control, facilities) · Manufacturing (23 markets incl. automotive, pharma, semiconductors, aerospace). Manufacturing sub-types (Capital-Intensive, Process, Discrete) can be toggled on above.
62 markets · 5 categories · 1960–2035 · click any data point for the calculation behind it
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Data vintage: FY 2024 / FY 2025 · Next refresh: Q3 2026 (mid-FY26 10-Ks)
Source Quality Hierarchy
Every market has a primary source plus 1–3 validation sources. Revenue numerators come from SEC 10-K filings; denominators validated against the Economic Census where available.
TIER 1Authoritative anchorsGovernment data + SEC filings
US Economic Census (data.census.gov) · SEC EDGAR / Company 10-Ks · BEA Industry Value-Added (FRED) · BLS QCEW · USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries · EIA Refinery Capacity Report · FDA device listings
TIER 2Leading commercial trackersIndustry-standard paid trackers
IDC Semiannual Software Tracker · Gartner Market Share & Magic Quadrant · IBISWorld NAICS reports · StatCounter Global Stats · eMarketer / Insider Intelligence · Synergy Research Group
TIER 3Category specialistsBest-in-class niche authorities
SIPRI (aerospace & defense) · IQVIA (pharma) · TrendForce (semiconductors) · CIMdata (CAD/PLM) · Nilson Report (payments) · Am Law 100 (legal) · ENR Top 500 (A&E) · AM Best (insurance) · SIA (staffing) · Ad Age (agencies) · Barron's / Cerulli (wealth) · Evaluate MedTech · Nielsen Gauge (streaming) · Gridwise (ride-hail) · Bloomberg Second Measure (delivery) · RC Top 100 (roofing) · SDM Top 100 (fire/safety) · Big 4 annual reports · ALM Intelligence (consulting)
Data vintage: Q2 2025 research compilation. Labels updated 2026-Q2. Tier 1 sources refreshed from FY2025 SEC filings where available. For full methodology see the Methodology page.
THE ESSAYS BEHIND THE DATA
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